Returns:
For each fund, there is a front-weighted percentage return for 3 months, 6 months, 1 year, and
2 years. By front-weighted, we mean that changes taken place during the more recent period will be assessed more
heavily than one for a latter period.
The reason why our returns are front-weighted is to be more in-tune with the current trends of a fund,
but also to take notice of its history as well. For example, if the price of a fund has been flat for nearly two years and
in the next three months it spikes 50% (a 3 month return of 50%), the front-weighted will take into consideration the short time period
it took to rise and give it a higher return percentage to better emphasize its recent progress. Here's the calculation used for the returns:
The easy-to-use rating system is unique in that it uses
"traffic lights" to illustrate the model’s analysis. The
strongest rating is two green lights; the weakest rating is two red
lights. You may click on the Performance or Potential lights for
some of the details behind the Ratings. Lists of changes in the
Ratings and the best and worst Performance and Potential Rating are
available by clicking the Lists button in the navigation bar.
The explanation here is for mutual funds, but it is applicable to groups,
sectors and the market.
The default chart depicts
prices for the past 90 days with Bollinger Bands. Each bar consists of the open, high, low
and close for the period. Bollinger Bands are included on all charts. Bollinger
Bands are bands drawn around the price structure that answer the question as to whether
prices are relatively high or low. They are governed by volatility. In their standard form,
the upper and lower Bollinger Bands are the 20-day simple moving average plus and minus two times the
20-day standard deviations, respectively. The middle band is simply the 20-day moving average.
3 months = 62 days
6 months = 125 days
1 year = 250 days
2 year = 500 days
Rating System:
The FundsTrader performance rating is a front-weighted, two-year, risk-adjusted,
relative-strength rating. By front weighted, we mean that more emphasis is placed on the
most recent data. We use two years of data as we feel this is the optimum
trade-off between history and relevancy. To risk adjust the rating, we calculate
the fund's responsiveness to down-moves in the market. If the fund falls more
than the market on average, then the funds rating is penalized. Relative
strength means that the raw data for a fund is compared to all other funds in
the universe and ranked accordingly.
The Potential rating for a fund is calculated by combining the EquityTrader
Potential ratings for the ten stocks that most nearly match the trading pattern
of the fund. Each stock's Potential rating is determined by a fuzzy logic engine that
evaluates a set of 54 rules. The fuzzy logic model is unique to EquityTrader and was developed
by John Bollinger, who is also well known for his Bollinger
Bands. Both fundamental and technical factors are
considered in arriving at the Potential.


On the left hand side of the chart are three tabs, Day, Week and Month. The default
setting is for a chart of daily closing prices. By selecting from the other tabs you will
get a chart with closing weekly prices or closing monthly prices.
On the right hand side of the chart are seven tabs. The default setting is for a chart with 240 days of closing prices. By selecting from the other tabs you will get a chart with prices for 30, 60, 90, 120, 180, 240 or 360 days.
Tabs - Lower chart - Supporting Indicators:
The tabs below the chart allow you to select one of four sets of technical indicators
to help you interpret the price chart. The default chart includes volume (red bars) and a
Normalized 50-day Moving Average of volume (horizontal blue line).
The other support chart options which can be selected with a tab are Supply/Demand,
Relative Strength or Momentum.
There are two type of discrete signals on our charts, PowerShifts and Pivots.
A positive PowerShift signal occurs
when a security has become severely oversold and strengthens enough
to potentially break the decline. Positive PowerShift signals are
marked by a rising wedge with a green core plotted beneath the day
on which they occurred.
A negative PowerShift signal is just
the opposite of a positive PowerShift with a small variation in the
logic and is marked by a falling wedge with a red core plotted above
the day on which it occurred.
A negative Pivot occurs when a
severely oversold security strengthens and then fails. A pivot sell
is marked by a red minus sign plotted above the day it occurs.
A positive Pivot is the reverse of a
negative Pivot, again with a small change in the logic, and is
marked with a green plus beneath the day on which it occurred.There is a difference in the logic between the positive and negative signals, based upon the idea that declines generally precede at a faster pace than advances. (The old saw goes, "Down is faster!")
Pivots usually, but not necessarily, occur after PowerShifts. Conceptually Pivots are companions to PowerShifts and should mark reaction highs after important lows and vice versa. An idealized chart is presented below.
